India to be 3rd largest economy by 2050 |
A recent study has predicted that India is likely to overtake Japan as the third-largest economy in the world by 2050 and will continue in that position till 2100. The study published in the medical journal Lancet, constructed scenarios for GDP using the working-age population of countries. It also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts. The study based 2017 as the reference when India was the seventh-largest economy in the world, and forecast that India will emerge as the fourth-largest economy by 2030 behind USA, China, Japan, and by 2050 it will go onto the third spot and retain it till 2100. The study published in July forecasted the number of working-age individuals (aged 20–64 years) for the ten largest countries in 2017, in the reference scenario. It said that huge declines in the number of workers were forecasted in China and India. By 2100, India was forecasted to still have the largest working-age population in the world, followed by Nigeria, China, and USA. The study showed that China would rise to the top in 2035 in the reference scenario for GDP, but would be superseded by USA again in 2098 as population decline curtailed economic growth. Other countries bolstered by immigration that rose up in the global rankings by GDP were Australia and Israel. India had set itself a target of being a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25 but the Covid-19 pandemic has stalled the march towards that target.
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