Monsoon forecast cheers Modi govt |
Upgrading its outlook for this year`s monsoon, private forecaster Skymet on May 26 said rains are expected to be `above normal` at 109 per cent of the long period average (LPA), almost reaching `excess` levels.This is four percentage points higher than Skymet`s first monsoon prediction made on April 11, when the forecaster said rains were expected to be 105 per cent of LPA. The forecast has a 4 per cent margin of error. India Meteorological Department has predicted 106 per cent rains. The department is expected to issue an updated forecast in the first week of June. Average rainfall of 887mm across the country from June to September is considered normal. If this is taken as 100 per cent, the normal monsoon range is 96%-104 per cent. Rains in the 104-110 per cent range is termed `above normal`, while those above 110 per cent is excess.Rainfall in June is expected to be 13 per cent below normal. The situation is likely to improve sharply in July, when 8 per cent above normal rains are predicted. The second half of the monsoon season to be better, with the models showing 13 per cent above normal rains in August and 23 per cent higher than normal in September.
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