NRI bonds to support rupee |
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to raise $30-35 billion through NRI bonds to support the rupee and offset the slowdown in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows amid rising oil prices, says a report.The FPI inflows to India will be impacted by Chinese firms listing in global benchmark indicies like MSCI, it said. According to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) report, the listing in benchmark indices will shift up to $100 billion to China market by 2019. China strategists estimate that possible entry into benchmark indices could push up to $100 billion into the China markets by end-2019. It further said that FPI equity flows to India may slow amid political uncertainty in the run up to the general elections, given rich valuations. RBI will issue a fourth tranche of NRI bonds to raise, say, $30-35 billion, to offset slowdown in FPI flows on listing of China paper in various benchmark indices at a time of higher oil prices. NRI bonds are forex deposits raised from non-resident Indians at attractive rates for 3-5 years, with some lock-in and an implicit RBI guarantee. RBI will issue NRI bonds if the global oil prices persist at $70/bbl. BofAML oil strategists forecast $71.8/bbl for 2018-19 and $75.3/bbl for 2019-20 and accordingly the current account deficit will widen to 2.4% of GDP this fiscal from 0.7% in 2016-17.
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